Quick update:
Received revised quotes back from the manufacturer and they are overall positive and I think the numbers are doable, but I’d love to hear what you all think. I’ll break the math down below.
The breakeven on these will be about 1,500 (forgot to add in MOQ for the breakeven) 2,330 units (breakeven being it covers all of our engineering costs + Minimum order qty).
To put that in perspective, the recent mmWave switch sold about 4.5k units in just over month (although it had heavy marketing behind it via Linus and it’s a switch that looks like a regular switch).
Here are my assumptions:
- This switches volumes compares better to our Fan switch in that it’s more of a niche switch that won’t be in every room (I’m thinking maybe 3-5 on average per house)
- The first time this switch was on pre-order there was probably around 1k units sold although I can’t remember the timeline that was in and the breakeven was much higher
Now, what gives me hope is that this is also a load bearing switch, so I suppose if people use this as not only a remote switch, but a two button switch, it could be in every room as maybe people like the design of the 2-Button better than the decora.
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I normally wouldn’t think twice about a 2,300 breakeven as that’s done in a few weeks, but the fact that there’s already four pre-orders out (Red Series 2-1, Blue Series Fan, Blue/Red mmWave) makes me hesitate (although the Red Series 2-1 should be here shortly – it’s in the ocean). Especially when it’s hard to deliver bad news of delays.
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Finally, I’m still waiting to hear back from the B2B client as they’ve been itching for a remote switch. If they accept our proposal, then this entire discussion wouldn’t matter as it would cover all of our fees.
But I wanted to approach you guys since I try not to rely on the B2B guys since they’re not really our target market.
Thoughts?